AMRO Raises ASEAN+3 Growth Outlook on Strong AI Demand, Sees Philippines Benefiting from Tech Exports

Business | Economics Posted on 2026-07-28 02:32:46

MANILA — The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has raised its economic growth forecast for the ASEAN+3 region for 2026, citing resilient artificial intelligence (AI)-driven demand that continues to offset global headwinds, including renewed tensions in the Middle East.

In its July 2026 ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Update, AMRO upgraded the region's growth projection to 4.1 percent from the 4.0 percent forecast issued in June, while maintaining its 4.0 percent outlook for 2027.

The ASEAN+3 grouping comprises the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), together with China, Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong.

AMRO Head and Lead Economist Allen Ng said the region's growing role in the global AI industry continues to drive economic expansion despite external geopolitical risks.

"Growth is revised upward to 4.1 percent in 2026 as robust AI-driven demand offsets headwinds from the Middle East conflict," Ng said during the regional economic briefing.

He noted that ASEAN+3 now accounts for nearly half of the world's AI-related trade, with economies deeply integrated into global technology supply chains benefiting from increased demand for AI-related products and services.

Strong household spending, improving labor market conditions, rising incomes, and the continued recovery of tourism—particularly with the return of Chinese travelers—have also contributed to the region's positive economic outlook.

Philippines Seen Benefiting from AI-Driven Global Supply Chain

Although the Philippines remains vulnerable to higher oil prices, AMRO said the country's strong participation in the global semiconductor industry positions it to benefit from the continuing expansion of artificial intelligence.

AMRO Chief Economist Dong He said the Philippines is more deeply integrated into the global AI ecosystem than commonly perceived.

He explained that while the country's economy is widely recognized for its services sector, its semiconductor exports continue to play a vital role in the international technology supply chain, providing sustained support for export growth.

For 2026, AMRO maintained the Philippines' economic growth forecast at 4.1 percent, while projecting a stronger 5.5 percent expansion in 2027.

Regional Growth Forecasts Upgraded

Several ASEAN+3 economies received higher growth projections for 2026, reflecting stronger-than-expected economic performance.

AMRO raised its forecasts for:

• South Korea to 3.1% from 2.4%

• Malaysia to 4.9% from 4.6%

• Singapore to 4.8% from 3.4%

• Thailand to 2.4% from 2.1%

• Vietnam to 7.5% from 7.2%

Growth projections for Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, China, Hong Kong, Japan, and the Philippines remained unchanged, while Brunei's outlook was revised downward to 1.9 percent.

For 2027, AMRO also upgraded the growth outlook for South Korea, Singapore, and Vietnam, while maintaining forecasts for the rest of the region, including the Philippines.

Inflation Expected to Ease Across the Region

AMRO said inflationary pressures are expected to remain manageable, forecasting regional inflation to average 1.6 percent in 2026, lower than the 1.8 percent projected in June.

The lower inflation outlook reflects expectations of declining global commodity prices, particularly oil.

For the Philippines, inflation is now projected at 5.7 percent, an improvement from the previous 6.0 percent forecast.

Lower inflation estimates were likewise issued for China, Japan, Brunei, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam, while projections for Malaysia and Indonesia remained unchanged.

BSP Policy Credited for Inflation Control

AMRO also credited the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) for its timely monetary policy actions, saying decisive interest rate measures helped contain inflationary pressures brought about by global fuel price increases.

Dong He said lower projected oil prices also contributed to the improved inflation outlook for the Philippines.

According to AMRO, inflation across the ASEAN+3 region is expected to average 1.6 percent again in 2027, supporting continued economic expansion.

Outlook Remains Positive Despite Global Risks

Despite the improved regional outlook, AMRO cautioned that uncertainties remain, particularly from the evolving conflict in the Middle East and the sustainability of the global AI investment cycle.

The organization warned that any renewed escalation could increase energy and shipping costs, disrupt industrial supply chains, and place additional pressure on global food prices.

Nevertheless, AMRO said the ASEAN+3 region remains well-positioned for continued growth, supported by strong technology demand, resilient domestic consumption, expanding trade, and increasing investments in artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing.

NPO News Team I PNA-PR

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